We will have a chance for severe weather across parts of Eastern Oklahoma, Northeastern Texas, Northwestern Louisiana, and Southwestern Arkansas. This is a look at the WRF MUCAPE forecast for later tonight.
A cold front is moving through the Southern Plains today. Later tonight, it will stall across Southeastern Oklahoma and bring a chance of thunderstorms across much of the Ark-La-Tex region. Based on this morning’s upper air and model data, I think the main threats with these storms will be small hail and damaging winds. The damaging wind potential would come later after dark and once the storms begin to weaken. Forecast soundings indicate a fairly significant layer of dry air near the surface, which will increase the potential for strong downbursts of wind.
Tomorrow, the severe weather potential will shift into the Southeast as the front continues to move southeast. Large hail will be the main threat across this region. However, I think there is enough shear and low level convergence to produce a few tornadoes, mainly in Northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Because of the amount of CAPE and shear present, it would not surprise me to see a few bow echoes in this area as well.
Please stay tuned to ChaserTV for further updates and live streaming video of weather events.
Originally posted here: Severe weather for the Southern Plains tonight and Southeast tomorrow