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Beautiful video of the Creston, Iowa Tornado 3/22/11

by on Mar.22, 2011, under Storms

To License Contact KDR Media 678-404-2119
***VIDEO NOT FOR REBROADCAST***

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The Summits Edge Morton, IL Review

by on Mar.21, 2011, under Reviews

I recently had the opportunity to spend some time at The Summits Edge with my company. Since there website does not have any reviews and is kind of poorly laid out I wanted to post a review to help them out. First off When we got there we were warmly welcomed by Bill Ingold and shown to the gym so that we could get our harnesses on. After a quick briefing on safety we were taken upstairs for a brief but thorough explanation of safety procedure on the high rope course. Everybody had a very enjoyable and safe time on the high rope course and was challenged to the point they were comfortable. After completing the high ropes courses anybody who was not exhausted and wanted to was given the opportunity to try there luck at the climbing walls. We were given a short briefing on safety procedure and allowed to begin. The walls were sufficiently challenging after the strenuous high ropes course. If you have rock climbing shoes I would suggest bringing them as it will make the climb a lot easier on you. Once we had run out of time it was time for lunch  which was from the attached red rock bar /grill the pizza was delicious and I would go back here to eat in the future. So if you are looking for something fun to do with you company or other group in the Central Illinois area I would definitely suggest you check out the Summits Edge in Morton.

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3/22/11 Severe Weather Threat (Overview by Mike Brady)

by on Mar.21, 2011, under Forcasts

Personal Setup Score 5/10

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a area of concern for Tuesday 3/22/11 for the possibility of severe weather (see below).

Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Probabilities

SPC Text

..SYNOPSIS  
  
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT CONCERNING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN  
EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE IS  
PROGGED TO EVOLVE TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH A LARGE  
HIGH CENTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES DURING  
THE DAY TUESDAY.  AS THIS PROCEEDS...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH...LIFTING  
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY...SHOULD  
GRADUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT REGIME  
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE  
TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  
  
WITHIN THE LEAD WAVE...A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED IMPULSE EMERGING FROM  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS STILL FORECAST TO PIVOT INTO AND NORTHEAST  
OF THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY IN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED  
FASHION BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG MID-LEVEL  
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR OF A SUB 1000 MB SURFACE  
LOW MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS OF  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND  
NORTH OF A STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK...AROUND 90 KT  AT 500  
MB...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY  
COMPONENT AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK  
PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
  
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL  
MOTION...AND THE SIZE OF THE AREA THAT IT COULD IMPACT...A  
CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  COUPLED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS  
WILL BE PRECEDED BY THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED  
LAYER AIR THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S...THE RISK FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL...AS VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES  
STRONG.  HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE  
FULLY REALIZED.  OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE  
THAT A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OFF  
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW IS  
UNLIKELY...THROUGH AT LEAST THIS PERIOD...AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING IS  
SLOW TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.   
STILL...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S TO LOWER 60S  
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD  
ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
   
..PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
  
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60F  
MAY BECOME COMMON IN A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR THE SURFACE CYCLONE EAST  
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY.  BENEATH THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER  
AIR...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER  
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER EASTWARD  
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI BY PEAK HEATING.  
 STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT  
OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD  
INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE INTO A MESOSCALE  
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD TRACK EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND  
JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST TO THE NORTH  
OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE RATHER COOL AND STABLE...TORNADIC  
POTENTIAL WITH STORMS CROSSING THE BOUNDARY MAY BE LIMITED.   
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL STILL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY  
CONCERNS WITH THE CONVECTION...WHICH COULD CONTINUE AND SPREAD INTO  
PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.  
  
ADDITIONAL...MORE WIDELY SCATTERED...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED  
ALONG THE DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW...ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH THE RISK FOR  
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
  
..KERR.. 03/21/2011  

Pros:

Terrain

Some Cape

Good Temps

Strong Shear

 

Cons:

Poor Hodographs

As with most Iowa Setups there are capping issues.

Poor Crossovers.

For those chasers who live in Iowa or can’t wait for a Nice setup I say go for it. However with gas prices as high as they are and it being so early in the season I will elect to sit this one out unless something changes drastically in later runs. As many chasers know Iowa has a 90% fail rate with Tornadoes in the past few years so most will have no problem avoding it.

 

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