DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/MUCH OF AR/SOUTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IL/FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ..SYNOPSIS CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN/SHIFT EASTWARD OVER AZ/NM DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL/SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS/STRONG TORNADOES...SEEMS PROBABLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ..SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS/MID-SOUTH/LOWER OH VALLEY THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES /INCLUDING SOME STRONG/...IN ADDITION TO AN INITIAL BOUT OF LARGE HAIL...WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY. INITIAL/DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS A STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK/NORTH TX/FAR SOUTHERN KS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED INITIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNSET...WITH INITIALLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/FAR NORTH TX AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN KS. OTHERWISE...A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN A RELATIVELY BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE ATTENDANT TO THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 750-1250 J/KG MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH AS AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING 60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET...A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE INCLUDING QUASI-LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS/LINE-LEADING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS/STRONG TORNADOES...AS THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY TOWARD THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS AND TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS. ..GUYER.. 02/26/2011
Personal Setup Score 7/10
Sunday is starting to look like it may be the first promising setup of the year so far. That being said the Storm Prediction Center has gone ahead and issued a slight risk.
At 0Z, surface temperatures are cooling, this could mean more instability and less inhibition than during the peak heating hours.
The Ideal chase terrain is across Ks/Ne/Ok/Tx on the flat plains free of trees and hills
As it is still only late February the sunsets early in the evening giving less light for ideal chasing. Chasing after dark can be dangerous hand half hazard if done in areas you don’t know and if you are new to chasing. For this reason I do not suggest new chasers chase after dark and or in the trees.
Mike Brady Flying at Skyventure Colorado Day 1
Mike Brady Flying at Skyventure Colorado Day 2
Brandon Sullivan Flying at Skyventure Colorado
My Google Places Review
I can’t say enough about the professionalism and friendliness of the staff at this place. I flew with Derek V. That guy is awesome. Very experienced and great at coaching. I will be sure to stop by this place every time I am in Denver and might have to make a few special trips. For anybody looking for some fun or some skydive training Check out Skyventure Colorado.